2016 NFL Week 10 Picks
Not much to recap from last week (except my trip to Ecuador, which I won’t bore you with here). Our one and only play of the week (San Francisco) was blown out by New Orleans. I wrote a piece for ESPN this week with betting-related takeaways from the first half of the season.
It’s been a disappointing first-half, by far the worst we’ve had since we’ve been publishing Massey-Peabody ratings, but the bigger story to me is how closely the lines have mirrored the MP lines this year. The difference between our line and the closing line has been lower than any season in our sample. Why? Markets tend toward efficiency, so that’s probably part of it. There’s been a lot of parity this season (in fact, the most of any season this century!); that could be a factor. A few people have suggested the increased circulation of the Massey-Peabody ratings could be playing a role, though I tend to think the increased promulgation of analytical models in general is more relevant.
Regardless, we’re entering the part of the season where, in the past, the MP line has had more weight relative to the closing line, so some edges that were not plays early in the season may be plays as we come down the stretch. Remember that the Massey-Peabody lines are fit linearly, so I can’t just say uniformly that a 2-point edge is worth X. I then use an ordered logistic model to fit it to the distribution, and edges are based on edges based off of that distribution, which is why Seattle has value despite only being a 1-point edge.
On to the Week 10 picks…
Big Plays (4-5-1 YTD)
- Carolina -3 vs. Kansas City [MP Line: CAR -6.3]
Other Plays (6-8-2 YTD)
- New York Jets -1 vs. Los Angeles [MP Line: NYJ -5.1] (downgraded to Other Play because of Fitzpatrick uncertainty)
- Philadelphia +2 vs. Atlanta [MP Line: PHI -1.4]
Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (5-9-2 YTD)
- Houston +2.5 at Jacksonville [MP Line: HOU -0.03]
- Seattle +7.5 at New England [MP Line: SEA +6.5]
M-P True Line on Remaining Games
- Baltimore -9.1 vs. Cleveland
- New Orleans -3.0 vs. Denver
- Washington -2.3 vs. Minnesota
- Green Bay -1.2 at Tennessee
- Chicago -0.2 at Tampa Bay
- San Diego -5.6 vs. Miami
- Arizona -12.1 vs. San Francisco
- Pittsburgh -0.5 vs. Dallas
- New York Giants -1.0 vs. Cincinnati