The challenge of posting picks at one time in the week is that lines move around, and sometimes value will pop up on Sunday morning. Last week’s results weren’t good if you just look at the picks we posted (1-2 on official plays, 2-0 on leans), but that doesn’t tell the entire story. Carolina looked to be in control, leading by 17 in the first half and 14 in the fourth quarter, before collapsing and losing by three. We posted a pick on the Jets, based on the assumption that Ryan Fitzpatrick would be starting. With Bryce Petty starting in his stead, our line moved from Jets -5 to -1, but our pick was made earlier in the week, and must unfortunately still be graded. As for our winners, Philadelphia +2 actually moved to Philadelphia -2 before game time and both our leans (Houston +2.5, Seattle +7.5) won outright. The reason I still think last week was a success is because line moves over the weekend made San Francisco, Chicago, and Dallas all good plays, and I was able to play them myself. Though they obviously those won’t be counted on our record, we do post our lines for all the games, so as lines invariably move around, you have some guidance as to what become good bets and what no longer are.
On to Week 11…
Big Plays (4-6-1 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (7-9-2 YTD)
- Buffalo +2.5 +100 at Cincinnati [MP Line: CIN -0.2]
Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (7-9-2 YTD)
- Green Bay +2.5 +100 at Washington [MP Line: WAS -0.8]
- Houston +6 vs. Oakland (neutral) [MP Line: OAK -4.7]
Massey-Peabody True Line on Remaining Games
- Carolina -3.7 vs. Atlanta (TNF)
- Indianapolis -2.7 vs. Tennessee
- Detroit -8.0 vs. Jacksonville
- Kansas City -6.9 vs. Tampa Bay
- New York Giants -6.8 vs. Chicago
- Minnesota -0.8 vs. Arizona
- Dallas -7.9 vs. Baltimore
- Pittsburgh -7.4 at Cleveland
- Los Angeles -0.3 vs. Miami
- New England -10.0 at San Francisco
- Seattle -7.1 vs. Philadelphia