Another tough week last week. Philadelphia was our lone big play to cover, while San Fran lost and San Diego either pushed or lost depending on whether you got +2.5 or +3. The Jets, after dominating the first quarter, got steamrolled by Miami, and Cincinnati blew a 14-point lead and couldn’t cover the +3 or +3.5 line. I made a brain fart in not posting Carolina +6.5 as a Big Play last week. I was rushing through to blog the picks before the Thursday night game kicked off, and didn’t even check the line on CAR/WAS, since it had been +4.5 the last I had seen. My bad on that one.
On to the Week 16 picks, hoping to build some momentum in the right directions…
Big Plays (8-16.5-2.5 YTD)
- Cincinnati Pk/+1 at Houston [MP Line: CIN -3.7]
Other Plays (10-12.5-2.5 YTD)
- Buffalo -3.5/-4 vs. Miami [MP Line: BUF -7.2]
- New Orleans -3 vs. Tampa Bay [MP Line: NO -5.2]
Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (12-15-2 YTD)
- Philadelphia +1.5 vs. New York Giants [MP Line: PHI -1.1]
- Carolina +2.5/+3 vs. Atlanta [MP Line: CAR -0.1]
- Indianapolis +3.5 at Oakland [MP Line: IND +1.9]
Massey-Peabody True Line on Remaining Games
- Washington -3.3 at Chicago
- Green Bay -5.7 vs. Minnesota
- New England -16.5 vs. New York Jets
- Tennessee -5.2 at Jacksonville
- San Diego -4.7 at Cleveland
- Los Angeles -3.4 vs. San Francisco
- Seattle -8.3 vs. Arizona
- Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Baltimore
- Kansas City -4.1 vs. Denver
- Dallas -8.2 vs. Detroit
Line movement have eaten away at some of the value on games I liked earlier in the week. For example, Philadelphia at a juiced +3 would have been a Big Play, Oakland at +4 was an Other Play, and Cincinnati at +2.5 was even more attractive. Moves like that happen every week; I don’t post picks until my own positions are taken, and thanks to market moves, I’ll generally take some positions that are unavailable when I post picks (the ones I posted above, for example).
