We continued our losing ways last week, going 0-2 on our official plays, with neither coming close to covering. We drop to 2-8 on official plays on the young season (and 2-4 on leans). Still, even if your baseline expectation is 55%, you’re going to have some stretches like this one. If there was a guaranteed profit every week, it wouldn’t be called gambling.
Here’s some perspective: I simulated 100,000 fake ‘seasons’ of 60 ‘picks’ with each pick of each season having a 55% chance of winning. In 4 of those season, I come out 49-11. In 5, I go 17-43. I win less than 50% of picks in 18% of seasons, and am profitable (32-28 or better) 65% of the time. The fact that M-P picks have had five straight profitable seasons is pretty incredible. In fact, if our true rate of cover is 55% (we’ve been slightly better), our odds of having 5 straight profitable seasons is only 12%. We’ve had much less variance than expected.
Is it fun to lose? Of course not. But am I worried? No. On to Week 5…
Big Plays (0-3 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (2-5 YTD)
- Buffalo +1 at Los Angelels [MP Line: BUF -1.9]
- Green Bay -7 (+100) vs. New York Giants [MP Line: GB -9.4]
Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (2-4 YTD)
- San Diego +3.5 at Oakland [MP Line: SD +1.9]
M-P True Line on Remaining Games
- Arizona -2.0 at San Francisco (TNF)
- Minnesota -7.7 vs. Houston
- Miami -4.3 vs. Tennessee
- New England -10.8 at Cleveland
- Pittsburgh -7.2 vs. New York Jets
- Baltimore -4.1 vs. Washington
- Philadelphia -2.2 at Detroit
- Indianapolis -6.0 vs. Chicago
- Denver -3.9 vs. Atlanta
- Cincinnati -2.9 at Dallas
- Carolina -6.6 vs. Tampa Bay
