We got off to a solid start last week, with our picks going 3-1-1. There was some negative feedback, including from Cade himself, about switching to one category of picks. As Cade said, the hallmark of a good system is that it should do better as its edge increases. That feedback makes sense. What doesn’t is someone saying that “Other Plays” were hitting at 75% last year, and they want to only bet that category as a result. In the tout world, one trick commonly used is having different categories of picks, that way the tout can highlight a category that is doing well, while ignoring the others. That was never the intent of our categories, and to me, the benefit of subdividing our picks into categories based on confidence does not outweigh my ethical concerns with setting a dangerous precedent. The difference between our expectation on “Big Plays” and “Other Plays” averages less than 2% expected cover probability. So to recap, we’re sticking to the new system of just giving one category of plays.
Here are the Massey-Peabody lines for this week’s slate:
- Cincinnati -0.0 vs. Baltimore
- Washington -7.4 vs. Indianapolis
- Atlanta -1.8 vs. Carolina
- PICK: CAROLINA +6
- Minnesota -1.2 at Green Bay
- (uses A. Rodgers as GB quarterback)
- LA Chargers -5.4 at Buffalo
- PICK: BUFFALO +7/+7.5
- Tennessee -1.2 vs. Houston
- PICK: TENNESSEE +2
- Pittsburgh -7.8 vs. Kansas City
- PICK: PITTSBURGH -4
- NY Jets -2.2 vs. Miami
- Philadelphia -1.1 at Tampa Bay
- New Orleans -9.9 vs. Cleveland
- LA Rams -9.1 vs. Arizona
- PICK: ARIZONA +13
- San Francisco -4.9 vs. Detroit
- Jacksonville -0.7 vs. New England
- Denver -5.9 vs. Oakland
- Dallas -7.0 vs. NY Giants
- PICK: DALLAS -3
- EDIT: Seattle -2.0 at Chicago
- PICK: SEATTLE +3/+3.5
- this was mistakenly entered as Chicago -2 originally
2018 Record: 3-1-1 (75%)
NFL Lifetime Record: 317-254-17 (55.5%, +37.6 units assuming 1 unit bets at -110 juice)
ALL Football Lifetime Record: 431-346-19 (55.5%, +48.5 units)
