NFL Conference Championship Picks
We did not have an official play last week, but did have Carolina (+10.5) at a Break-Even or Better selection. After playing the first three quarters close, the Panthers fell by 14.
Divisional Closing Line Value
- *Carolina: picked +10.5, closed +13.5, CLV -3.0
Conference Championship Picks
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the midweek line). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on consensus lines as of 10:00am PST Thursday.
Big Plays (19.5-20-0.5 YTD)
- Green Bay +7/+7.5 at Seattle [MP Line: GB +2.5]
Other Plays (17-10-1 YTD)
Break-Even or Better (15-25.5-0.5 YTD)
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games
- New England -6.3 vs. Indianapolis