Midweek Rufus woke-up from his props-induced coma and drug himself out for two computer-free days of golf/rehab. He’s back in full obsession mode now, but in-between he called just long enough to drop a few numbers and wave toward the blog before running off to new hunting grounds. So, fresh from the front lines of the biggest sportsbook week of the year…
We have this game Pats -2.45. That’s been evident since we posted our final power rankings last Monday. The line moved our way for awhile but has since settled around Pats -1. At Pick and Pats -1 it’s a “Break-Even or Better” (52.5-54%). At Pats +1 it’s an “Other Play” (54-55%). At Pat +2 it becomes a “Big Play” (55%+).
A lot of people seem to have expected us to be on Seattle. Many have asked whether public money is just over-reacting to the Pats running away from the Colts in the AFC Championship. Maybe. Probably even. But going into the Championship weekend we would have made NE -1.17 vs. SEA. Then our model dropped SEA a bit (from +7.29 to +7.06) due to their shenanigans with the Packers, and bumped NE substantially (for this late in the year), from +8.46 to +9.51. Perhaps the public moved even more, which means our edge would be greater if they would’ve just beaten the Colts by 6 like they were “supposed” to. But the short answer is that we’ve had the Pats #1 in the league since Week 15 and were not at all surprised to be on their side.
If you want a total we have it 49.5. We don’t work as hard on our totals as our lines so take it for what it’s worth. That puts us on the Over, but there’s not a lot of edge there.
Together that means we have the score 25.975-23.525. For an actual football score we’ll go with 26-24.
Enjoy it! And thanks for hanging with us this season.
Conference Championships Recap
Our Big Play on GB +7 managed to hang on, barely, despite the Packers late-game collapse. The cover got Big Plays back into plus territory (again, barely) to end the year. This week…
Big Plays (20.5-20-0.5 YTD)
Other Plays (17-10-1 YTD)
Break-Even or Better (15-25.5-0.5 YTD)
- New England -1 vs. Seattle [MP Line: NE -2.45]