Had a little bump in the road last week, going 2-3 overall (1-0 on Big Plays, 1-3 on Other Plays). This week we have a very small slate of games we like. As has been the case in previous years, the differences between how we value teams and how the market values them gets smaller later in the season.
The value in the last few weeks, and this week specifically, seems to come from the market overreacting to short-run *outcomes*, while undervaluing the process generating those outcomes. Jacksonville, winner of four of its last five games, but squeaked out wins against bad competition–in large part due to winning the turnover battle–despite being outplayed in those games. It’s a massive improvement over the Jags’ 0-8 start, where they were outscored by 22 points per game and lost every game by double digits, but while the improvement is reflected in their rising MP rating, the first eight games are still the primary driver of that rating. The market has similarly overreacted to the Eagles’ recent string of success.
Lines are widely available as of noon EST on Wednesday . As usual, we do not consider injuries (except QB) or matchup factors; the lines are based purely on our ratings, plus home-field advantage, and an adjustment for teams coming off of byes and Thursday games.
A reminder: Big Plays are expected to cover more than 55%. Other Plays are expected to cover between 54% and 55%. Break-Even or Better are expected to cover between 52.5% and 54%.
Big Plays (13-8-1 YTD)
- Minnesota +5 vs. Philadelphia [MP= +0.3]
Other Plays (29-20 YTD)
- Buffalo -2 at Jacksonville [MP= -4.3]
Break-Even or Better (13-10-1 YTD)
- New York Giants +7 vs. Seattle [MP= +5.9]
- Carolina -11 vs. New York Jets [MP= -13.7]
There are two games “off the board” (no lines posted yet) due to QB uncertainty: Cleveland/Chicago and Dallas/Green Bay. Below are the MP lines for those games, as well as the rest of the games:
- Denver -9.6 vs. San Diego
- Atlanta -6.0 vs. Washington
- San Francisco -4.3 at Tampa Bay
- Arizona -1.6 at Tennessee
- New Orleans -6.7 at St. Louis
- Chicago -2.6 at Cleveland (based on Jay Cutler as CHI QB)
- Indianapolis -5.9 vs. Houston
- Miami -0.7 vs. New England
- Kansas City -5.5 at Oakland
- Dallas -4.7 vs. Green Bay (based on Aaron Rodgers as GB QB)
- Cincinnati -0.9 at Pittsburgh
- Detroit -5.5 vs. Baltimore
