Week 17 always feels a little different. It’s not unusual for a team to have nothing to play for in the latter weeks of the season–except of course for their jobs, which is a pretty powerful incentive. But that’s been the case for some teams for awhile now. What’s difficult is figuring out the motivations of teams that have are already locked into a seed. This year, that team is the Redskins, who have locked up the #4 seed in the NFC. How long will Captain Kirk play? Rather than speculate, I’ll just omit that game.
There is another subset of games where the market believes one team is motivated to play harder than the other–when a team eliminated from playoff contention plays a team in a do-or-die situation. I find this sort of comical actually. Yes, I realize that football is an emotional game, and that getting eliminated from playoff contention is a downer, but most of the players on an NFL roster are playing for their jobs and future paychecks. But my real problem with the market’s (over)reaction to this set of circumstances is the notion that teams in must-win situations will play harder than normal, implying that their players were not giving maximum effort in other games. To me, this is completely farcical, and goes against all the analytical work Cade and I have done. While we do devalue garbage time situations, we don’t add extra predictive weight to late-and-close situations. Similarly, we don’t find plays on 3rd or 4th down to be any more predictive than those on 1st or 2nd down, despite the former’s higher leverage.
On to the picks…
Big Plays (19-12-1 YTD)
- Buffalo +3 vs. NY Jets [MP Line: BUF -0.2]
- Jacksonville +6.5 at Houston [MP Line: JAC +1.3]
- Cleveland +11 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CLE +6.3]
- San Diego +9 at Denver [MP Line: SD +5.6]
- Seattle +6.5 at Arizona [MP Line: ARI +3.2]
Other Plays (15-18 YTD)
- Miami +10 vs. New England [MP Line: MIA +7.9]
MP Leans (9-10-2 YTD)
- none this week
Our lines (means) for the rest of the slate
- Carolina -13.0 vs. Tampa Bay
- Cincinnati -9.2 vs. Baltimore
- Atlanta -3.7 vs. New Orleans
- Kansas City -8.4 vs. Oakland
- Detroit -1.0 at Chicago
- NY Giants -2.9 vs. Philadelphia
- Green Bay -4.1 vs. Minnesota
- St. Louis -3.2 at San Francisco