NFL Week 17 Picks
Merry Christmas everybody! Heading into the final week of the season, our picks appear poised for another profitable year. Last week was another strong week, with our Big Plays going 1-1, our Other Plays 1-0, and Break-Even or Better selections 2-1. In terms of line move value, both Big Plays did not move. Our Falcons pick moved 2.5 points against us, closing at +14.5, though we were vindicated by the outcome (well, as much as one game can prove anything, so not at all). Our BEOB picks crushed the line moves, with Arizona moving from +10.5 to +8 and New England from +2.5 to -1, while Chicago stayed put at +3.
On to the more interesting stuff. Per usual, we’re seeing a market overreaction to injuries of high-profile players. A few weeks ago, it was Adrian Peterson; this week, it’s Tony Romo and Calvin Johnson (who may or may not play). Orton is a competent backup, and the Cowboys only lose 2.8 points from the QB switch.
Lines are widely available as of 10pm EST on Wednesday. As usual, we do not consider injuries (except QB) or matchup factors; the lines are based purely on our ratings, plus home-field advantage, and an adjustment for teams coming off of byes and Thursday games. We are scratching the KC/SD game for now, since KC is expected to rest starters.
Big Plays (15-9-1 YTD)
- Dallas +6 vs. Philadelphia [MP= -1.1]
- Detroit +3 at Minnesota [MP= -1.9]
Other Plays (31-20 YTD)
- Cincinnati -6 vs. Baltimore [MP= -8.7]
- New York Giants -3.5 vs. Washington [MP= -6.9]
Break-Even or Better (15-13-1 YTD)
- Houston +7 at Tennessee [MP= +5.7]
- Buffalo +8.5 at New England [MP= +7.3]
- Tampa Bay +12.5 at New Orleans [MP= +10.8]
- Arizona +1 vs. San Francisco [MP= -1.9]
MP Lines on Remaining Games
- Carolina -5.2 at Atlanta
- Chicago -2.3 vs. Green Bay (w/ Rodgers)
- Pittsburgh -8.5 vs. Cleveland
- Indianapolis -12.3 vs. Jacksonville
- Miami -6.6 vs. New York Jets
- Denver -12.3 at Oakland
- San Diego -1.4 vs. Kansas City
- Seattle -12.7 vs. St. Louis