Every year, there are a few unexpected performances in the first week of the season, and this year was no different. Who expected the Eagles to walk all over the Redskins? Or the lowly Raiders to nearly beat the Colts? While there is plenty of signal in one week of data, its value is still rather small compared to our priors going into the season. As a result, there is some value this week from the betting public overreacting to Week 1.
Here are this week’s plays. Lines are widely available as of 1:30pm EDT on Wednesday. As always, picks are based on Massey-Peabody ratings. The only injuries explicitly accounted for are QB injuries.
Big Plays (2-1 YTD)
- San Diego +7.5 at Philadelphia [MP= +0.0]
Other Plays (0-4 YTD)
- Miami +3 at Indianapolis [MP= -0.4]
- Minnesota +6 at Chicago [MP= +3.0]
- Arizona +1.5 vs. Detroit [MP=-1.5]
- NY Giants +4.5 vs. Denver [MP= +1.7]
- Tampa Bay +3 vs. New Orleans [MP= +0.7]
- Buffalo +3 vs. Carolina [MP= +0.5]
- Dallas +3 at Kansas City [MP= +0.9]