A very big weekend for Massey-Peabody NFL picks in Week 7. Our lone Big Play, won handily. Our Other Plays swept, going 5-0, with both the Jets and Colts winning outright as underdogs, and Houston losing by one point. Our new category, Break-Even or Better–picks we expect will (barely) cover the vig, but are not strong enough for us to feel confident recommending–went 1-2. The line moves last week were slightly positive, with the Carolina, NY Jets, Arizona, and Chicago lines closing closer to our number, while Atlanta and Dallas moved against us.
On to this week’s selections… Lines are widely available as of 2:20am EDT on Wednesday morning. As usual, we do not consider injuries (except QB) or matchup factors; the lines are based purely on our ratings, plus home-field advantage, and an adjustment for teams coming off of byes and Thursday games.
Big Plays (5-4-1 YTD)
- Dallas +3 (+100) at Detroit [MP= -1.4]
Jacksonville +16 vs. San Francisco [MP= +11.8]
- Cleveland +7.5 at Kansas City [MP= +3.9]
Other Plays (18-12 YTD)
- New York Giants +5.5 at Philadelphia [MP= +2.2]
- Carolina -5.5 at Tampa Bay [MP= -8.4]
- Minnesota +9.5 vs. Green Bay [MP= +7.1]
Break-Even or Better (4-4 YTD)
- St. Louis +10.5 vs. Seattle [MP= +9.0]
*Edit (11pm Thursday): I mistakenly forgot that the Jacksonville game is in London and had JAC as a true home team. I blogged the pick, so I’m leaving it in for our records, but Jacksonville should not be a big play, as our true line is Jacksonville +14.3.