NFL Wild Card Picks
Week 17 Recap:
Despite a brutal loss with St. Louis (+12.5) fumbling away a 6-point halftime lead, we still managed to end the regular season on a positive note, going 4-2. Our only other loss was Miami (-6) losing outright to the Jets. Our winners were Kansas City (-3), Philadelphia (+2.5/+3), and Denver (-14) in Big Plays and Dallas (-5.5) as an Other Play. Our Break-Even or Better selections went 1-1.
We end the regular season with a record of 36.5-30 on official plays (54.9%).
- Big Plays: 19.5-19-0.5 (50.6%)
- Other Plays: 17-11-1 (60.7%)
- Break-Even or Better: 13-23.5-0.5 (35.6%)
You can see all our picks (with line moves as well) in a spreadsheet right here.
Week 17 Closing Line Value
Solid week in line value. For the year, we averaged 0.49 points of line value on official plays, and 0.08 points on BEOB.
- Miami: picked -6, closed -7, CLV 1.0
- Kansas City: picked -3, closed -3, CLV 0.0
- Philadelphia: picked 2.75, closed 0, CLV +2.75
- St. Louis: picked +12.5, closed +11, CLV +1.5
- Denver: picked -14, closed -16, CLV +2.0
- *New Orleans: picked -4, closed -6, CLV +2.0
- *Carolina: picked +4, closed +2.5, CLV +1.5
Wild Card Picks:
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on consensus lines as of 11:30am PST Wednesday.
Big Plays (19.5-19-0.5 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (17-11-1 YTD)
- none this week
Break-Even or Better (13-23.5-0.5 YTD)
- Baltimore +3 at Pittsburgh [MP Line: BAL +0.4]
- Indianapolis -3/-3.5 vs. Cincinnati [MP Line: IND -5.7]
- Dallas -6.5 vs. Detroit [MP Line: DAL -9.3]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games
- Carolina -7.5 vs. Arizona
Note: IND becomes an Other Play at a true -3. Dallas becomes an Other Play at -6. Baltimore is a Big Play at +3.5, and an Other Play at +3 reduced juice.