Our projections, as we begin the playoffs:
| Team |
Div Alive |
Conf Alive |
Conf Champ |
SB Win |
| NE |
100.0% |
87.3% |
61.5% |
36.6% |
| DAL |
100.0% |
70.0% |
41.7% |
19.1% |
| ATL |
100.0% |
63.3% |
29.6% |
13.4% |
| KC |
100.0% |
61.0% |
20.8% |
9.9% |
| PIT |
80.1% |
35.1% |
12.2% |
6.6% |
| SEA |
77.2% |
28.9% |
13.4% |
6.5% |
| GB |
68.1% |
24.7% |
10.6% |
4.8% |
| NYG |
31.9% |
8.9% |
3.4% |
1.2% |
| HOU |
60.4% |
8.6% |
3.0% |
0.9% |
| OAK |
39.6% |
5.2% |
1.7% |
0.4% |
| DET |
22.8% |
4.3% |
1.3% |
0.4% |
| MIA |
19.9% |
2.8% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
Author: Cade Massey
https://opimweb.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/1757/ Cade Massey is a Professor of the Practice at the Wharton School of Business. His research is on judgment under uncertainty, including overconfidence, optimism and under- and over-reaction. He is the co-author of “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft", co-host of "Wharton Moneyball" on SiriusXM 111, and co-director of Wharton People Analytics.
