Last week we were 3-2-1, pushing the NYJ-Miami game when it went to OT. The crazy Baltimore-New England game got us into winning territory at the end of the weekend. We’re now 10-7-1 (58.8%) for the year.
Large slate this week, with picks on 7 of the 15 games (Pittsburgh and Indy have byes). “Big Plays” are usually games with edges of 4 points or more. We’re going to be a little more aggressive with that early in the season, where our historical hit rate has been higher. This week we have 1 very big play with Houston (currently a 5.1-point edge – suspect this line will move), and are also sliding two games with 3.6-point edges into that category. “Other Plays” this week are games with edges of 2.0-3.6 points.
The usual caveats apply – we don’t consider injuries, weather, matchups, etc. Pointspreads are from Covers.com this afternoon.
Big Plays (4-4 YTD)
Hou -12 vs Ten [MP= -17.1]
Min +7 at Det [MP= +3.4]
SD +0 at KC [MP= -3.6]
Other Plays (6-3-1 YTD)
NYJ +4 vs SF [MP= +0.9]
NO +7.5 at GB [MP= +5.1]
Jac +2 vs Cin [MP= -0.1]
Mia +6 at Ari [MP= +3.9]
Just below the 2-point threshold is the Oakland at Denver game. We have Denver -8.36 while Vegas has them -6.5. If you’re feeling aggressive, that’d be the next best pick. Last week we hit 2 of the 3 just-below-threshold picks, for what it’s worth. These aren’t official picks, but we’d like to give you as much to work with as possible.
