Opened the season with a 3-2 weekend, all Big Plays. Happy to be on the positive side. Would settle for 3-2 all year long.
We’ve continued to do some research on our priors coming into the season. Will have more on this later, but we’ve tweaked them to account for changes in QBs. All according to historical data – we avoid putting fingers on the scale at all cost! This year’s influx of new QBs led us to do some work we’ve been trying to get to for awhile. It’s also a step toward dealing with mid-season injuries, too. Will keep you posted.
Onto the picks. We have 7 this week, listed below in decreasing order of “edge” (the absolute difference between our spread and the market’s). Big Plays are for edges greater than 4 points, and Other Plays are between 2.5 and 4 points. Lines are from Covers.com this afternoon.
Big Plays (3-2 YTD, 3-2 last week)
NYJ (+6) at Pit [MP= +0.2]
MIA (+2.5) vs Oak [MP= -2.1]
Other Plays (0-0 YTD)
CHI (+6) at GB [MP= +2.4]
TB (+7.5) at NYG [MP= +4.0]
SD (-6) vs Ten [MP= -9.4]
JAC (+7.5) vs Hou [MP= +4.2]
BAL (+2.5) at Phi [MP= -0.4]