We didn’t have a single official pick last week–we did have a lean on Seattle, which won–but unfortunately, for the seconds straight week, we don’t see much value on sides. In fact, three of the four games are within a tenth of a point of the market. For those of you who really want SOMETHING to bet on, the one pick I’ve made myself is under 52.5 on the Green Bay/Dallas game. That total is now down to 52, and my numbers make it 49.9. Here’s the 60-second hit I did on the pick for ESPN. We’ve never posted total bets before on here, and we’re not counting this for our record or anything, but given that we literally have nothing on sides this week, I felt like I should give you people something.
Side note: All Massey-Peabody lines quoted are mean lines, not medians. I had some people asking why Alabama wasn’t a play for the CFB Playoff given that the MP line was -7.5 and the market was at -6.5, and I tried to explain that the mean does not necessarily equal the median. In that particular case, we would have made -7.5 a true +116, despite it being our mean prediction. (Also, a one-point edge was not enough anyway, since in order to calculate true edge, you need to regress the MP line towards the market number.)
For those of you interested in the nitty-gritty, I use an ordered logistic regression to translate the Massey-Peabody line into a distribution. Sometimes, a two-point edge is a big play, sometimes it’s not even a lean. This week, we show a two-point edge on the Patriots (with no adjustment for Gronk injury), but that doesn’t even qualify as a lean. If you have any questions about any of that, tweet at us about it (@RufusPeabody or @MasseyPeabody) and we’ll happily respond.
Big Plays (12-18.5-2.5 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (12-13.5-2.5 YTD)
- none this week
Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (14-18-2 YTD)
- none this week
Massey-Peabody Line on Remaining Games
- Atlanta -4.6 vs. Seattle (total: 49.7)
- New England -17.1 vs. Houston (total: 45.4)
- Kansas City -1.5 vs. Pittsburgh (total: 44.8)
- Dallas -4.5 vs. Green Bay (total: 49.9)
Note: My total predictions are based on current weather forecasts (where applicable) so they can and will change as weather forecasts change.
