2017 NFL Week 1 Picks
A summary of our historical performance can be found here. If you want to verify it yourself, you can go through all our previous blog entries (which I have used to compile this). For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be available at a minimum of two of the four books. If there’s no consensus, or a heavily juiced line, we’ll post the pick in the style of Asian handicap, with half the pick at one line and half the other, since we want to keep our record as simply W/L.
This week is (unsurprisingly) a bunch of underdogs. There are a few teams the market expects to be really bad, but our quantitative model does not take into account personnel changes, with the exception of quarterback. Our numbers should be a little weaker early in the season, but I do think there is some public overreaction to perceived changes in team quality.
Without further ado, here are our picks.
Big Plays (0-0 YTD)
- NY Jets +9 at Buffalo [MP Line: NYJ +5.3]
- Chicago +6.5/+7 vs. Atlanta [MP Line: CHI +3.7]
Other Plays (0-0 YTD)
- Jacksonville +5.5 vs. Houston [MP Line: JAC +2.6]
- Cleveland +9 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CLE +6.4]
Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (0-0 YTD)
- New Orleans +3/+3.5 at Minnesota [MP Line: NO +1.6]
- LA Chargers +3/+3.5 at Denver [MP Line: LAC +1.7]
MP Lines on Remaining Games
- New England -8.2 vs. Kansas City
- Washington -1.9 vs. Philadelphia
- Detroit -0.04 vs. Arizona
- Tennessee -3.0 vs. Oakland
- Cincinnati -3.4 vs. Baltimore
- LA Rams -3.2 vs. Indianapolis
- Green Bay -2.5 vs. Seattle
- Carolina -5.1 at San Francisco
- Dallas -2.8 vs. NY Giants