Week 10 Recap:
Excellent week for our picks last week, going 3-1. Our one loss was Miami (+2.5/+3), which fell victim to a go-ahead Detroit touchdown in the final minute. Atlanta (-2.5) was a 27-17 winner over Tampa Bay as our second Big Play. For our Other Plays, Baltimore (-9.5) fell behind early, but ended up winning by 14, while the Jets (+4.5) took a big first-half lead and managed to not blow it, winning outright against the Steelers.
Week 10 Closing Line Value:
- Atlanta: picked at -2.5, closed at -3.25, CLV +0.75
- Miami: picked at +2.75, closed at +2.75, CLV 0.0
- Baltimore: picked at -9.5, closed at -10.25, CLV +0.75
- NY Jets: picked at +4.5, closed at +4.5, CLV 0.0
Week 11 Picks:
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number. Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 11:45am PST.
Big Plays (11.5-6-0.5 YTD)
- Washington -7 vs. Tampa Bay [MP Line: Washington -12.7]
Other Plays (7-4 YTD)
- Miami -5 vs. Buffalo (already posted)
- New York Giants +4 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: NYG +2.0]
Break-Even or Better (6-13 YTD)
- Tennessee +6 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: Tennessee +4.0]
- Carolina +1 at Atlanta [MP Line: Carolina -2.1]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games
- Cleveland -2.9 vs. Houston
- Chicago -4.7 vs. Minnesota
- Green Bay -6.7 vs. Philadelphia
- Kansas City -1.5 vs. Seattle
- New Orleans -8.8 vs. Cincinnati
- Denver -10.0 at St. Louis
- San Diego -10.2 vs. Oakland
- Detroit -0.5 at Arizona
- Indianapolis -3.8 vs. New England
Edit: NYG/SF was mistakenly left off when this was first posted. Added as an Other Play at 1:59pm PST.
