Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
It was brought to my attention that a loss from Week 9 was not included in our W/L record for Big Plays. I went through week-by-week to make sure everything was correct in our records and found that, indeed, a Week 9 loss was omitted from our record in the subsequent weeks. After adding that loss,…
Week 17 Recap: Despite a brutal loss with St. Louis (+12.5) fumbling away a 6-point halftime lead, we still managed to end the regular season on a positive note, going 4-2. Our only other loss was Miami (-6) losing outright to the Jets. Our winners were Kansas City (-3), Philadelphia (+2.5/+3), and Denver (-14) in Big Plays…
Week 16 Recap Merry Christmas! Our late-season slide continued last week, with our official plays going 3-4. Our Big Plays took the hit, going 1-3 and dropping our YTD record to below 50% for the first time this season (49.3%). Tennessee (+3.5) blew a 10-point first half lead and lost by 8; Chicago (+9) almost won outright, giving us…
Play criteria are the same as they have been all year. We do not consider situational factors, motivation, lame duck coaches, etc. Lines are based purely off our power ratings, adjusted for QB injuries and pace of play. Lines are Vegas Insider consensus as of 11:00am PST on Thursday, December 18. Big Plays (16-11-1…
Week 15 Recap We continued our late-season swoon with another subpar performance. Our Big Plays went 0-3, their worst mark of the season so far. They drop to a barely-profitable 52.5% on the season. Baltimore (-14) came out very flat, and struggled just to beat the Jaguars outright, never threatening the cover. Miami (+7.5) had a field…
Week 14 Recap: Our week got off to a bad start when Chicago (+4) was steamrolled by Dallas on Thursday. I don’t know what’s going on with Chicago, but they should not be playing this badly. We rebounded in the early time slot on Sunday, with Carolina (+10) dominating New Orleans, winning 41-10. Our lone Big Play, Kansas…
We ended the “regular” season on a good note, winning our one official play (Louisiana Tech +11), and going 2-0 on our leans. Since we won’t post bowl game picks until next week, I figured I’d fill this space with a summary of our season. It’s been a very good year. Overall our record on official…
Week 13 Recap: Not a good week for our picks. Our official plays end only one game under .500 at 3-4, but it felt worse. And our Break-Even or Better recommendations continue their remarkably horrid season by going 0-2. Let’s start with the Big Plays (2-3)…Our week looked to be off to a good start when Chicago…
Week 14 Recap: The penultimate week of the football season had the week’s biggest slate of games, but very little betting value, as we posted only three official plays. Our Big Plays went 2-0 on the strength of big second halves. Indiana (-2.5) came back from a 6-point halftime deficit to win by a touchdown and Arkansas State (-22.5)…
Ohio State -19.1 vs. Michigan Boston College -11.4 vs. Syracuse Duke -20.9 vs. Wake Forest Tennessee -14.6 at Vanderbilt Wisconsin -14.5 vs. Minnesota Miami (FL) -9.2 vs. Pittsburgh Maryland -10.1 vs. Rutgers Louisiana Tech -9.3 vs. Rice North Carolina -11.0 vs. N.C. State Northwestern -7.2 vs. Illinois Indiana -11.6 vs. Purdue Texas State -11.4 at…