Big Plays (6-7-1 YTD)
- Baltimore -3 vs. Miami [MP Line: BAL -7.0]
- New England -7/-7.5 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: NE -13.0]
- Washington +2 vs. Dallas [MP Line: WAS -2.3]
Other Plays (9-4 YTD)
- Philadelphia -12.5 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: PHI -15.5]
Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (9.5-3-0.5 YTD)
- Carolina +2 at Tampa Bay [MP Line: CAR -0.4]
- Cincinnati -10.5 vs. Indianapolis [MP Line: CIN -13.1]
Our Lines on Remaining Games
- Minnesota -9.6 at Cleveland (uses Keenum at QB)
- New Orleans -9.4 vs. Chicago
- Atlanta -3.7 at New York Jets
- Buffalo -1.2 vs. Oakland
- Seattle -5.5 vs. Houston
- Pittsburgh -3.2 at Detroit
- Kansas City -8.7 vs. Denver
In response to popular demand, picks and closing line value for this season and last are now accessible here. If anyone wants to go through the archives and compile that information from previous years, I’ll add it to the spreadsheet — and be eternally grateful. I would like to have it all that info in one place, but it’s time-consuming and I have a lot more pressing work. If anyone spots an error or has an issue with the closing line I used for a particular game, please let me know. Since we’ve been essentially using asian handicap for some games so we can track W/L record instead of units, it’s far from perfect. But to truly track closing line value correctly, I’d have to go back and look at a book’s spread and associated moneyline at the time I blogged picks and compare that to where the game actually closed. Using push probabilities, I could calculate the closing line value in percentage terms. I would love to have this, but it would be incredibly tedious and time-consuming to compile. If anyone feels intrepid enough, historical picks are on the site and historical line histories are available for free at sbrodds.com.