College Football Week 10 Picks

We continued our recent streak of dominance last week, going 2-0 on Big Plays, 3-0-1 on Other Plays, and 2-1 on MP Leans.  After our dreadful start, this means we have fought back to the 50% mark for all picks. I’ve gotten some questions recently about what the threshold is for the different pick categories. The quick-and-easy answer:…

College Football Week 9 Picks

Posting picks 12 hours earlier this week, since I won’t be available tomorrow.  Last week, we didn’t have any Big Plays, but our Other Plays went 2-1, while MP Leans went 2-3.  More importantly, all but one pick moved our way.  Louisiana Tech moved from +6.5 to +3.5, Michigan from -7.5 to -8.5, Colorado State from +7 to +6.5,…

College Football Week 8 Picks

Won our lone Big Play last week, with Kansas State playing Baylor close.  Split the remaining picks, going 1-1 on Other Plays and MP Leans.  If we had included Texas, which should have been a Big Play but Cade vetoed, we would have had an additional win.  As a result of Texas’s win, we are now Peabody-Massey Analytics for…

College Football Week 7 Picks

Finally, a winning weekend in college football!  We went 8-2 overall, including 4-1 on “Big Plays”, 1-1 on “Other Plays”, and 3-0 on “MP Leans”.  Our big plays are now well in the positive.  If only we could somehow just forget about the other plays…  We also did very well with the line moves, beating…

College Football Week 6 Picks

Coming off a .500 weekend last week in college football.  2-0 on “Big Plays”, 2-3 on “Other Plays”, 1-2 on “MP Leans”.  This week, for the first time, I’m doing a write-up of the big plays.  Lines are widely available as of 11:30am EDT on Wednesday.  As always, they are based on the M-P ratings…

College Football Week 5 Picks

Another week gone by, and another week I get to try to explain the piss poor performance of our college football picks.  We don’t have the 3 seasons of documented profitable performance in college that we do with our NFL plays.  This is our first season, and this is not the way we hoped to…

College Football Week 4 Picks

The complete ratings can be found here.  Another subpar weekend on the college front.  0-2 on Big Plays, 2-2 on Other Plays, but leans did go 2-0.  Despite the unprofitable record thus far, our plays have been getting good closing line value.  The average play we’ve released has closed 0.7 points toward our side (meaning…

College Football Week 3 Picks

Our updated CFB ratings can be found (and downloaded!) here. Coming off of a BRUTAL week, where we won just one game.  I know it must not inspire much confidence, but all I can do is laugh about it and move on.  I remain confident in the process.  Weeks such as this are (probabilistically) almost certain…

Week 2 NCAA Football Ratings & Picks

Well, last week didn’t go as well as we’d have liked.  3-3 on our “Big Plays” and 3-4 on “Other Plays”. Our updated ratings after week 1 can be found here.  Interesting to see that despite Clemson beating Georgia in last weekend’s marquee matchup, we still rate Georgia significantly higher.  Statistically, Georgia had the better…

College Football Week 1 Picks

Without further ado, here is the inaugural version of our weekly college football picks against the spread.  Lines taken from Bookmaker as of 10:30am PDT on Wednesday.  Some big differences between our numbers and the market.  We think a lot of games won’t be quite as lopsided as the market.  This is fairly common at…