College Football Week 12 Picks

We continued our mid-season surge last weekend, sweeping both our Big Plays (2-0) and Other Plays (2-0). We didn’t just win, we WON. Stanford blew out Oregon as a 10-point dog, New Mexico entertained thoughts of an upset as a 24.5-point dog before finally succumbing to Boston College by 14, and Syracuse won by 17 as a…

College Football Week 11 Picks

Wasn’t sure I was going to be able to say this after our 18-31 start, but our college football picks are now over 50%! 6-5 altogether last week:¬†Big Plays went 1-2;¬†Other Plays went 3-1; MP Leans went 2-2. We were particularly accurate on the underdogs last week, with USC winning as a 5-point dog, Minnesota…

College Football Week 10 Picks

We continued our recent streak of dominance last week, going 2-0 on Big Plays, 3-0-1 on Other Plays, and 2-1 on MP Leans.  After our dreadful start, this means we have fought back to the 50% mark for all picks. I’ve gotten some questions recently about what the threshold is for the different pick categories. The quick-and-easy answer:…

College Football Week 9 Picks

Posting picks 12 hours earlier this week, since I won’t be available tomorrow.  Last week, we didn’t have any Big Plays, but our Other Plays went 2-1, while MP Leans went 2-3.  More importantly, all but one pick moved our way.  Louisiana Tech moved from +6.5 to +3.5, Michigan from -7.5 to -8.5, Colorado State from +7 to +6.5,…

College Football Week 8 Picks

Won our lone Big Play last week, with Kansas State playing Baylor close.  Split the remaining picks, going 1-1 on Other Plays and MP Leans.  If we had included Texas, which should have been a Big Play but Cade vetoed, we would have had an additional win.  As a result of Texas’s win, we are now Peabody-Massey Analytics for…

College Football Week 7 Picks

Finally, a winning weekend in college football!  We went 8-2 overall, including 4-1 on “Big Plays”, 1-1 on “Other Plays”, and 3-0 on “MP Leans”.  Our big plays are now well in the positive.  If only we could somehow just forget about the other plays…  We also did very well with the line moves, beating…

College Football Week 6 Picks

Coming off a .500 weekend last week in college football.  2-0 on “Big Plays”, 2-3 on “Other Plays”, 1-2 on “MP Leans”.  This week, for the first time, I’m doing a write-up of the big plays.  Lines are widely available as of 11:30am EDT on Wednesday.  As always, they are based on the M-P ratings…

College Football Week 5 Picks

Another week gone by, and another week I get to try to explain the piss poor performance of our college football picks.  We don’t have the 3 seasons of documented profitable performance in college that we do with our NFL plays.  This is our first season, and this is not the way we hoped to…

College Football Week 4 Picks

The complete ratings can be found here.  Another subpar weekend on the college front.  0-2 on Big Plays, 2-2 on Other Plays, but leans did go 2-0.  Despite the unprofitable record thus far, our plays have been getting good closing line value.  The average play we’ve released has closed 0.7 points toward our side (meaning…

College Football Week 3 Picks

Our updated CFB ratings can be found (and downloaded!) here. Coming off of a BRUTAL week, where we won just one game.  I know it must not inspire much confidence, but all I can do is laugh about it and move on.  I remain confident in the process.  Weeks such as this are (probabilistically) almost certain…