Week 14 Recap: The penultimate week of the football season had the week’s biggest slate of games, but very little betting value, as we posted only three official plays. Our Big Plays went 2-0 on the strength of big second halves. Indiana (-2.5) came back from a 6-point halftime deficit to win by a touchdown and Arkansas State (-22.5)…
Ohio State -19.1 vs. Michigan Boston College -11.4 vs. Syracuse Duke -20.9 vs. Wake Forest Tennessee -14.6 at Vanderbilt Wisconsin -14.5 vs. Minnesota Miami (FL) -9.2 vs. Pittsburgh Maryland -10.1 vs. Rutgers Louisiana Tech -9.3 vs. Rice North Carolina -11.0 vs. N.C. State Northwestern -7.2 vs. Illinois Indiana -11.6 vs. Purdue Texas State -11.4 at…
Week 13 Recap: Last week was the week of the “U”- acronyms. We had picks on UTSA, UCLA, UNLV, and a lean on UTEP. Our official plays–all Other Plays–went 2-1. UTSA (+9.5) was blown out 45-7 by Western Kentucky, a team we’ve been fading unsuccessfully the past few weeks. UCLA (-3.5) won convincingly over crosstown rival USC,…
The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, drawing on good analytics while acknowledging political reality. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) Every team starts the…
Virginia Tech -15 at Wake Forest Miami (FL) -7.3 at Virginia Tennessee -0.9 vs. Missouri South Carolina -24.4 vs. South Alabama Ball State -16.8 vs. Eastern Michigan Michigan State -20.3 vs. Rutgers Nebraska -7.1 vs. Minnesota Mississippi State -30.2 vs. Vanderbilt Ohio State -34.2 vs. Indiana Michigan -8.2 vs. Maryland Oklahoma -24.8 vs. Kansas Pittsburgh…
Week 12 Recap Last weekend’s results were disappointing, with our official plays going 3-5. Our Big Plays split, with LSU (+2) looking awful offensively in a shutout loss at Arkansas. Maybe it was a letdown game after the ‘Bama loss. For whatever reason, they did not play like the LSU team we had been seeing this season. Hawaii (+10.5)…
The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, drawing on good analytics while acknowledging political reality. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) Every team starts the…
Here’s the full list of Massey-Peabody lines for the weekend’s games: North Carolina -3.8 vs. Pittsburgh N.C. State -12.9 vs. Wake Forest Penn State -9.5 vs. Temple Ohio State -16.4 at Minnesota Iowa -3.0 at Illinois Western Kentucky -6.0 vs. Army Western Michigan -23.6 vs. Eastern Michigan Wisconsin -6.9 vs. Nebraska Tennessee -12.5 vs. Kentucky…
Week 11 Recap: Coming off of a solid Week 11. We split our Big Plays: Florida State (-19.5) started slow (again) and failed to cover, while Texas (+3.5) was dominant in a 17-point win over favorite West Virginia. Our Other Plays did much better, going 3-1. Indiana (+6.5) turned the ball over deep in their own territory in the last…
I’ll save the recap for when I blog the full lineup of picks tomorrow. Here are our picks/lines for the weekday games: NFL Other Plays (7-4 YTD) Miami -5 vs. Buffalo [MP Line: MIA -8.3] College Football Other Plays (24-15 YTD) Ball State +4 at Akron Massachusetts [MP Line: Ball St +0.1] UCF -20 vs….