Cade Massey is a Professor of the Practice at the Wharton School of Business. His research is on judgment under uncertainty, including overconfidence, optimism and under- and over-reaction. He is the co-author of “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft", co-host of "Wharton Moneyball" on SiriusXM 111, and co-director of Wharton People Analytics.

NFL Power Rankings

Our weekly power rankings show how we predict teams will perform the rest of the year. [button url=”” target=”_self” size=”small” style=”coolblue” ]Current Rankings[/button]

Game Predictions

Each week we compare the Massey-Peabody power rankings to betting lines to make picks against the spread. In 2011 we hit 55.9% of all picks, and 64.7% of our  “Big Plays”. [button url=”” target=”_self” size=”small” style=”coolblue” ]This Week’s Picks[/button]

NFL 2011 Week 16 Picks

2-2 last week. The usual protocol this week re injuries, weather, lines, etc. And as always, “Big Plays” are games with a 4+ point edge, and “Other Plays” are games with 2-4 point edges. Getting to be a tough time of year for a system that doesn’t account for injuries — be sure to see…

NFL 2011 Week 12 Picks

3-1-1 last week, 1-0 on big picks. For detail on yearly performance, see this summary graph and/or this spreadsheet. As usual, lines are from as of 15 minutes ago. Big Plays [18-8 YTD]: Det (+6.5) vs. GB (MP= +1.8) Other Plays [26-20-2 YTD]: Mia (+7) at Dal (MP= +3.6) SF (+3) at Bal (MP=…