Cade Massey is a Professor of the Practice at the Wharton School of Business. His research is on judgment under uncertainty, including overconfidence, optimism and under- and over-reaction. He is the co-author of “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft", co-host of "Wharton Moneyball" on SiriusXM 111, and co-director of Wharton People Analytics.

Week-1 Picks

This week is a sort of beta trial for us, as we’ve never before made picks based on anything other than same-year performance. However, back-testing says we can do this (about as well as our normal picks) so we’ll give it a whirl. Our usual caveats apply – we do not consider injuries or, in…

Priors

For the first time since we started this work we’re going to use priors in our rankings. We were driven to this because we wanted to make week-1 predictions, but we’re also hopeful it will boost our performance early in the season. We are doing this in the most simple, light-handed, and in some ways obviously…

Welcome to the 2012 season

Welcome to the 2012 NFL season. The Giants & Cowboys kick things off in just a few hours.  We’re back and striving to give you the cleanest look possible at the true ability of NFL teams.  As always, we do that by considering context, factoring out chance, and most important, weighing statistics for what they…