Cade Massey is a Professor of the Practice at the Wharton School of Business. His research is on judgment under uncertainty, including overconfidence, optimism and under- and over-reaction. He is the co-author of “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft", co-host of "Wharton Moneyball" on SiriusXM 111, and co-director of Wharton People Analytics.

Sayonara, CFB picks

Lots of questions the last few days so want to give you an update. Looks like we’re getting out of the pick-posting business for college games. Just decided midweek after line moves complicated our lives. There were hard line moves in our direction on FIU, Central Michigan, Idaho and Alabama after we finally posted our…

NFL Super Bowl Pick

Midweek Rufus woke-up from his props-induced coma and drug himself out for two computer-free days of golf/rehab. He’s back in full obsession mode now, but in-between he called just long enough to drop a few numbers and wave toward the blog before running off to new hunting grounds. So, fresh from the front lines of…

CFB Playoff Bracket, Final

The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, drawing on good analytics while acknowledging political reality. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) Every team starts the…

CFB Playoff Bracket for Dec 6

The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, drawing on good analytics while acknowledging political reality. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) Every team starts the…