Cade Massey is a Professor of the Practice at the Wharton School of Business. His research is on judgment under uncertainty, including overconfidence, optimism and under- and over-reaction. He is the co-author of “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft", co-host of "Wharton Moneyball" on SiriusXM 111, and co-director of Wharton People Analytics.

CFB Playoff Bracket for Nov 27

The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, drawing on good analytics while acknowledging political reality. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) Every team starts the…

CFB Playoff Bracket for Nov 22

The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, drawing on good analytics while acknowledging political reality. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) Every team starts the…

CFB Bracket for Nov 15

The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, leaning on good analytics while acknowledging political reality. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) Every team starts the…

CFB Bracket for Nov 8

The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, showing that predictive analytics can and should be used even in a political process. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most…

CFB Bracket for Nov 1

The Massey-Peabody bracket attempts to reconcile analytics and politics. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) No influence from pre-season expectations (hence we use Massey-Peabody’s “Hybrid”…

CFB Playoff Bracket

We figured we should offer a bracket for this year’s college playoff. Since the playoff committee is announcing their first rankings next week. And, you know, since nobody else seems to have an opinion on the matter. The challenge is that we want a bracket informed by analytics – predictive analytics – but one that…

Super Bowl Pick

Where’d all the square money go?!  We are yet again right on the market line – we have the Niners by 3.31, while Vegas has them at 3.5. Not a lot of edge to work with there. Looks like we’ll end the season at 54.3% here and 55.9% in the Wall Street Journal. We have…

Conference Championships

We hit our Seattle pick last week, moving our YTD record to 51-43-2 (54.3%). Our WSJ picks got bumped (by HGH!) so we are still 33-26-1 (55.9%) there. Full predictions this weekend: SF 24, ATL 22 NE 30, BAL 22 But those mean another weekend without picks, as the market largely agrees. We like SF…