Cade Massey is a Professor of the Practice at the Wharton School of Business. His research is on judgment under uncertainty, including overconfidence, optimism and under- and over-reaction. He is the co-author of “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft", co-host of "Wharton Moneyball" on SiriusXM 111, and co-director of Wharton People Analytics.

2012 Strength of Schedule

A quick look at teams’ strength-of-schedule this season. Below we’ve simply averaged the end-of-season MP rating for each team’s 16 opponents. Playoff teams are highlighted in red. A few observations: Most playoff teams come from the easier half of the distribution. While tempting to believe that is because of the easier schedule, these scheduling differences can’t explain…

Wildcard Picks

Last week we were 2-0, including one “Big Play”, making our overall YTD 50-43-2 (53.8%). We were also 2-0 in the WSJ, pushing the YTD to 33-26-1 (55.9%). No action this week! We are in close agreement with Vegas on these 4 games. Our biggest edge, though still not what we’d consider a pick at…

Week-17 Picks

Last week we were 3-3, including 2-1 on “Big Plays”, making our overall YTD 48-43-2 (52.7%). We were 4-2 in the WSJ, pushing the YTD to 31-26-1 (54.4%). (Week 15, previously unreported, we were 3-2). Strange week, this one. For 11 of the 13 games on the board, our line is within 1 of the…

Week-15 Picks

Last week we were 2-2, making our YTD 39-38-2 (50.6%). We were also 2-2 in the WSJ we were 3-2, pushing the YTD to 24-22-1 (52.2%). More familiar faces here. As a buddy put it this morning, “Jets! Cowboys! Bills! And the only reason you’re not shorting the Giants is because you guys hate the…

Week-14 Picks

Last week we were 4-3, including 2-1 on Big Plays. YTD we are 37-36-2 (50.7%). In the WSJ we were 3-2, pushing the YTD to 22-20-1 (52.4%). So surprising that we’re short the Giants. And, for that matter, long the Bills and Jets, two of our other most familiar positions. Hoping the edge on that…

Week-13 Picks

A painful 0-4 last week. Apparently we are the high-variance outfit this season.  YTD we are 33-33-2 (50%), and 19-18-1 (51.4%) in the WSJ (they published no picks last week due to the holiday). For QBs we have Roethlisberger and Vick out, and the Niners playing Kaepernick. Quick note on line moves, which we accidentally…

Week-12 Picks

5-2 last week, including our Monday post on the Niners, pushing our YTD to 33-29-2 (53.2%). We were 3-1 in the WSJ, so now 19-18-1 (51.4%) YTD. We’re still adjusting for the 4 big QB injuries. Present rankings assume Roethlisberger and Vick are out, and give Smith and Cutler a 50% chance of playing. As always,…

Week-11 Picks

3-5 last week. We hit some gloriously high-profile upsets (Saints, Bengals and Texans), but missed the others. In the WSJ we were 3-4. YTD we are 28-27-3 (50.9%) here and 16-17-1 (48.5%) in the WSJ. This week we are grappling with the rash of QB injuries. We detail this in separate blog posts, but our…