Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Week 1 saw our picks go 2-2, with both Big Plays winning and both Other Plays losing. Opening week in the NFL is always interesting. Every year there are a few teams that surprise everyone with how well or poorly play. And every year the market loves to overreact to this one-week sample size, creating narratives to…

NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL season is finally here and, despite some misgivings, we’re going to continue to post weekly NFL picks. As you may recall from previous seasons, we do not factor in offseason roster transactions in our ratings; in fact, individual players (and coaches) are not considered at all with the exception of quarterback. Still, we’ve done…

Massey-Peabody Historical Performance

Over the last year or so, we’ve gotten the occasional question about where to find our historical performance. And given the changes in our site over the past few years, it’s not immediately obvious where to find this. In 2010, I started posting NFL picks sporadically in the wee hours of Sunday morning. By 2011, we had…

NFL Conference Championship Picks

Divisional Recap We did not have an official play last week, but did have Carolina (+10.5) at a Break-Even or Better selection. After playing the first three quarters close, the Panthers fell by 14.   Divisional Closing Line Value *Carolina: picked +10.5, closed +13.5, CLV -3.0   Conference Championship Picks Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays…

College Football Championship Pick

Bowl Game Recap: We had an undefeated bowl season, going 5-0 on our official plays and benefitted from two amazing fourth quarter comebacks. In our lone Big Play, Michigan State (+3) rallied from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Baylor. And on Christmas Eve, Central Michigan (+3.5) came back from down 35 in the fourth quarter to lose…

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Wild Card Recap: We didn’t have any official plays on last weekend’s action. However, we did have three Break-Even or Better selections, which fared well, going 2-1. Baltimore (+3) won outright in Pittsburgh, Indianapolis (-3/-3.5) blew out Cincinnati, and Dallas (-6.5) came from behind in the second half to win, but failed to cover.   Wild…

Correction on NFL Records

It was brought to my attention that a loss from Week 9 was not included in our W/L record for Big Plays. I went through week-by-week to make sure everything was correct in our records and found that, indeed, a Week 9 loss was omitted from our record in the subsequent weeks. After adding that loss,…

NFL Wild Card Picks

Week 17 Recap: Despite a brutal loss with St. Louis (+12.5) fumbling away a 6-point halftime lead, we still managed to end the regular season on a positive note, going 4-2. Our only other loss was Miami (-6) losing outright to the Jets. Our winners were Kansas City (-3), Philadelphia (+2.5/+3), and Denver (-14) in Big Plays…

NFL Week 17 Picks

Week 16 Recap Merry Christmas! Our late-season slide continued last week, with our official plays going 3-4. Our Big Plays took the hit, going 1-3 and dropping our YTD record to below 50% for the first time this season (49.3%). Tennessee (+3.5) blew a 10-point first half lead and lost by 8; Chicago (+9) almost won outright, giving us…

College Football Bowl Game Picks

Play criteria are the same as they have been all year. We do not consider situational factors, motivation, lame duck coaches, etc. Lines are based purely off our power ratings, adjusted for QB injuries and pace of play. Lines are Vegas Insider consensus as of 11:00am PST on Thursday, December 18.   Big Plays (16-11-1…