Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

College Football Week 3 Picks

Our updated CFB ratings can be found (and downloaded!) here. Coming off of a BRUTAL week, where we won just one game.  I know it must not inspire much confidence, but all I can do is laugh about it and move on.  I remain confident in the process.  Weeks such as this are (probabilistically) almost certain…

NFL Week 1 Picks

After an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1.  Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent.  The other…

Week 2 NCAA Football Ratings & Picks

Well, last week didn’t go as well as we’d have liked.  3-3 on our “Big Plays” and 3-4 on “Other Plays”. Our updated ratings after week 1 can be found here.  Interesting to see that despite Clemson beating Georgia in last weekend’s marquee matchup, we still rate Georgia significantly higher.  Statistically, Georgia had the better…

College Football Week 1 Picks

Without further ado, here is the inaugural version of our weekly college football picks against the spread.  Lines taken from Bookmaker as of 10:30am PDT on Wednesday.  Some big differences between our numbers and the market.  We think a lot of games won’t be quite as lopsided as the market.  This is fairly common at…

Week-16 Picks

Last week we went 6-2, making our YTD 45-40-2 (52.9%).  We also had another solid week with regard to the market, with our picks beating the closing line by an average of 1.25 points.  For the season, our picks have beaten the closing line by an average of 0.83 points per game, a very encouraging…

Week 7 Picks

We had a second consecutive losing week last weekend, going 1-1-1 on Big Plays, and 1-3 on Other Plays.  Our overall record for the season now stands at 19-16-2 (54.3%).  Our picks published in the WSJ, which may differ from the website picks due to line moves, went 1-4-1 and are 8-8-1 on the season.…