We continued our recent streak of dominance last week, going 2-0 on Big Plays, 3-0-1 on Other Plays, and 2-1 on MP Leans. After our dreadful start, this means we have fought back to the 50% mark for all picks. I’ve gotten some questions recently about what the threshold is for the different pick categories. The quick-and-easy answer:…
A very big weekend for Massey-Peabody NFL picks in Week 7. Our lone Big Play, won handily. Our Other Plays swept, going 5-0, with both the Jets and Colts winning outright as underdogs, and Houston losing by one point. Our new category, Break-Even or Better–picks we expect will (barely) cover the vig, but are not strong enough for us…
Posting picks 12 hours earlier this week, since I won’t be available tomorrow. Last week, we didn’t have any Big Plays, but our Other Plays went 2-1, while MP Leans went 2-3. More importantly, all but one pick moved our way. Louisiana Tech moved from +6.5 to +3.5, Michigan from -7.5 to -8.5, Colorado State from +7 to +6.5,…
Won our lone Big Play last week, with Kansas State playing Baylor close. Split the remaining picks, going 1-1 on Other Plays and MP Leans. If we had included Texas, which should have been a Big Play but Cade vetoed, we would have had an additional win. As a result of Texas’s win, we are now Peabody-Massey Analytics for…
Pretty blah week on the NFL front last week. Big Plays went 1-1, as Buffalo staged a 2nd half comeback to cover, while Arizona melted down late and failed to cover by 1 measly point. Other Plays went 1-1, as the Giants covered on Thursday and Oakland managed to turn a tie game at halftime…
Finally, a winning weekend in college football! We went 8-2 overall, including 4-1 on “Big Plays”, 1-1 on “Other Plays”, and 3-0 on “MP Leans”. Our big plays are now well in the positive. If only we could somehow just forget about the other plays… We also did very well with the line moves, beating…
Our picks last week went 2-4 overall. Both of our “Big Plays” lost, while we split the “Other Plays”. Despite the outcomes being unprofitable, I think we “won” with the process. The short-run driver of results in this business is luck; in the long-run, skill shines through. In the short-run, a better predictor of future…
Last week, we went 3-3 on our plays (all “Other Plays”). This has been a year with two big outliers. The Jaguars offense has been historically inept. The numbers are staggeringly awful. Jacksonville’s play success rate is only 24.8% (league average is 44.6%) and they average only 3.3 adj yards per play. The Jaguars don’t just…
Coming off a .500 weekend last week in college football. 2-0 on “Big Plays”, 2-3 on “Other Plays”, 1-2 on “MP Leans”. This week, for the first time, I’m doing a write-up of the big plays. Lines are widely available as of 11:30am EDT on Wednesday. As always, they are based on the M-P ratings…
Last week saw our NFL plays go 2-1-1, with Baltimore and Indy both covering comfortable (and winning outright), but San Diego could not seal the deal in the last minute and let Tennessee get the backdoor push. It’s very early in the year to say this, but our ratings certainly show that there is a…