Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

2017 NFL Week 17 Picks

It’s the final week of the regular season, and an unusually large number of playoff-bound teams have little to no incentive to win. Two teams (Kansas City and the LA Rams) have announced that they will be resting their key starters, which makes a lot of sense given their position and that they won’t have…

2017 NFL Week 16 Picks

Big Plays (17-23-2 YTD, 132.5-114.5-8 lifetime) Green Bay +9 vs. Minnesota [MP Line: GB +5.9] Cincinnati +3.5/+4 vs. Detroit [MP Line: CIN -2.1] NY Jets +7 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: NYJ +4.5] Tennessee +6.5/+7 vs. LA Rams [MP Line: TEN +3.5] New England -11 vs. Buffalo [MP Line: NE -15.5] NY Giants +4 at…

2017 Bowl Game ATS Picks

Here are our official ATS picks for bowl games: Arizona -3.5 vs. Purdue (MP Line: Arizona -5.4) Troy -6.5 vs. North Texas (MP Line: Troy -11.1) Army +7 vs. San Diego State (MP Line: Army +3.5) Virginia Tech +4.5 vs. Oklahoma State (MP Line: Virginia Tech +0.7) Note: I made two mistakes when posting these…

2017 NFL Week 15 Picks

Big Plays (15-21 YTD, 130.5-114.5-7 lifetime) Kansas City +1 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: KC -3.4] Houston +11 at Jacksonville [MP Line: HOU +7.1] Baltimore -7 at Cleveland [MP Line: BAL -11.3] Tennessee +2 at San Francisco [MP Line: TEN -6.6] Other Plays (20.5-5-0.5 YTD, 171.5-129.5-7 lifetime) Cincinnati +10.5 at Minnesota [MP Line: CIN +8.5]…

2017 NFL Week 14 Picks

Big Plays (15-17-1 YTD, 130.5-109.5-7 lifetime) Cincinnati -6 vs. Chicago [MP Line: CIN -10.0] Houston -2.5/-3 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: HOU -7.3] Washington +6 at LA Chargers [MP Line: WAS +2.7] NY Giants +4 vs. Dallas [MP Line: NYG +0.8] Other Plays (18.5-4-0.5 YTD, 169.5-128.5-7 lifetime) Seattle +2.5 at Jacksonville [MP Line: SEA -0.7]…

NFL Week 13 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

2017 NFL Week 13 Picks

Big Plays (12-17-1 YTD, 127.5-108.5-7 lifetime) Arizona +7 vs. LA Rams [MP Line: ARI +3.7] NY Giants +9 at Oakland [MP Line: NYG +2.5] Seattle +6 vs. Philadelphia [MP Line: SEA -0.6] Cincinnati +5/+5.5 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CIN +1.6] Other Plays (15.5-4-0.5 YTD, 166.5-128.5-7 lifetime) Dallas +1.5 vs. Washington [MP Line: DAL -1.8] Baltimore…

2017 NFL Week 12 Picks

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Thankful for being able to do something I love (sports analytics) for a living, for more than seven years of professional collaboration with Cade, and for you — our audience — who think we have something worthwhile to contribute. Big Plays (11-15-1 YTD, 126.5-106.5-7 lifetime) Dallas +2 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line:…

2017 NFL Week 11 Picks

Big Plays (9-14-1 YTD, 124.5-105.5-7 lifetime) New York Giants +10/+10.5 vs. Kansas City [MP Line: NYG +3.7] Houston -1 vs. Arizona [MP Line: HOU -3.5] Dallas +4 vs. Philadelphia [MP Line: DAL +1.7] Other Plays (13.5-4-0.5 YTD, 164.5-128.5-7 lifetime) Minnesota -2 vs. LA Rams [MP Line: MIN -3.9] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (11.5-4-0.5 YTD, 67.5-74.5-8 lifetime) Chicago…

NFL Week 10 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…