Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

NFL Week 4 Grades

season tm week score diff off def MP pctile rating exp score diff 2016 PIT 4 29 1.70 1.26 2.96 0.991 15.47 2016 DEN 4 20 0.71 1.51 2.22 0.961 11.59 2016 SEA 4 10 1.26 0.78 2.04 0.947 10.62 2016 NO 4 1 0.99 0.69 1.67 0.907 8.72 2016 DAL 4 7 1.62 -0.36…

2016 NFL Week 4 Picks

Recapping another losing week isn’t fun. So I’ll keep it succinct. Not the start to the season we were hoping for, but in the words of Nick Saban (…and Sam Hinkie) we will “trust the process” as we always have. Not unexpected at all to have runs like we have the first three weeks. Chicago did not…

CFB Week 4 Grades

Here are our “grades” for the fourth week of the college season. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of…

NFL Week 3 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 3. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance,…

2016 NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s been a slow start thus far this year, with our official plays going 1-1, while both of our leans lost. That puts us at 1-3 on the year, but it is early days still. Here are this week’s picks: Big Plays (0-2 YTD) Chicago +7/+7.5 at Dallas [M-P Line: CHI +3.1] Other Plays (1-1…

CFB Week 3 Grades

Here are our “grades” for the third week of the college season. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of…

NFL Week 2 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 2. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance,…

NFL Week 1 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 1. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. So Pittsburgh was fundamentally 10.7 points better than an…

CFB Week 2 Grades

Here are our “grades” for the second week of the college season. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. So…

2016 NFL Week 2 Picks

The season got off to a sluggish start, with both our official plays losing, though our one lean was victorious. As I mentioned last week, we’re weighting the market number more heavily early in the season, so the threshold for something to quality as a pick is a little higher than in the past. I…