NFL Week 3 Picks

My central thesis of last week’s picks was overwhelmingly vindicated, as our Big Plays went 3-1, with wins by Denver (+3), New England (-1), and Dallas (+5) offset only by Detroit’s (+2.5) loss. That said, it would be disingenuous not to mention that the Broncos were outplayed, and were extremely lucky to get the win. But our strongest play of the weekend,…

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NFL Week 2 Picks

Week 1 saw our picks go 2-2, with both Big Plays winning and both Other Plays losing. Opening week in the NFL is always interesting. Every year there are a few teams that surprise everyone with how well or poorly play. And every year the market loves to overreact to this one-week sample size, creating narratives to…

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NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL season is finally here and, despite some misgivings, we’re going to continue to post weekly NFL picks. As you may recall from previous seasons, we do not factor in offseason roster transactions in our ratings; in fact, individual players (and coaches) are not considered at all with the exception of quarterback. Still, we’ve done…

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Sayonara, CFB picks

Lots of questions the last few days so want to give you an update. Looks like we’re getting out of the pick-posting business for college games. Just decided midweek after line moves complicated our lives. There were hard line moves in our direction on FIU, Central Michigan, Idaho and Alabama after we finally posted our…

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NFL Super Bowl Pick

Midweek Rufus woke-up from his props-induced coma and drug himself out for two computer-free days of golf/rehab. He’s back in full obsession mode now, but in-between he called just long enough to drop a few numbers and wave toward the blog before running off to new hunting grounds. So, fresh from the front lines of…

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NFL Conference Championship Picks

Divisional Recap We did not have an official play last week, but did have Carolina (+10.5) at a Break-Even or Better selection. After playing the first three quarters close, the Panthers fell by 14.   Divisional Closing Line Value *Carolina: picked +10.5, closed +13.5, CLV -3.0   Conference Championship Picks Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays…

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