Here’s the first iteration of our weekly grades. These represent how well a team played, weighting metrics by their predictive value and controlling for expected quality of opponent. # season week tm opp tm score opp score pctile rating score diff 1 2017 1 LSU Brigham Young 27 0 0.995 40.7 2 2017 1…Details
We’re going to try to update this week feature weekly. At the moment we’re just dropping our summary in here, showing the 27 teams our models give >2% chance of making the playoff. We organized them by conference because that will be a critical dynamic in the playoff conversation. We include our current power ranking,…Details
To forecast win totals we simulate the season a few thousand times, accounting for opponent, game location and byes. In general, we expect better teams to have more wins, obviously. But there is a lot more variation in those expectations than you might expect. We can ask how many games a team *should* win,…Details
Here are our power rankings organized by conference (power-5 only – sorry, @PAPN). Decide for yourself, using the old eyeball test, what the conference pecking order is. I’d make it SEC>ACC>PAC12>BIG10>BIG12. Great way to see the distribution of talent in each conference. A few things that jump out to me: – The gaps Alabama…Details
Check back soon. We’ll begin blogging by the end of the week!
Apologies for not updating this sooner…been a crazy 10 days out in Vegas doing prop betting. Believe it or not, we do have a play–well, it’s officially going to have to be a lean, but if you can price shop, it’s good enough to be an “Other Play”. We make the Patriots a 4.7-point favorite (and…Details
We didn’t have a single official pick last week–we did have a lean on Seattle, which won–but unfortunately, for the seconds straight week, we don’t see much value on sides. In fact, three of the four games are within a tenth of a point of the market. For those of you who really want SOMETHING to…Details
Rufus sends his greetings from Havana. He also sends our take on the weekend via text message (apparently not all communists countries are good with computers)… Finished off a dismal NFL regular season with our best week of the season (by a mile), going 5-1 on our official plays, and losing our one lean…Details