2016 NFL Week 5 Picks

We continued our losing ways last week, going 0-2 on our official plays, with neither coming close to covering. We drop to 2-8 on official plays on the young season (and 2-4 on leans). Still, even if your baseline expectation is 55%, you’re going to have some stretches like this one. If there was a guaranteed profit every week, it…

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NFL Week 4 Grades

season tm week score diff off def MP pctile rating exp score diff 2016 PIT 4 29 1.70 1.26 2.96 0.991 15.47 2016 DEN 4 20 0.71 1.51 2.22 0.961 11.59 2016 SEA 4 10 1.26 0.78 2.04 0.947 10.62 2016 NO 4 1 0.99 0.69 1.67 0.907 8.72 2016 DAL 4 7 1.62 -0.36…

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2016 NFL Week 4 Picks

Recapping another losing week isn’t fun. So I’ll keep it succinct. Not the start to the season we were hoping for, but in the words of Nick Saban (…and Sam Hinkie) we will “trust the process” as we always have. Not unexpected at all to have runs like we have the first three weeks. Chicago did not…

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CFB Week 4 Grades

Here are our “grades” for the fourth week of the college season. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of…

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NFL Week 3 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 3. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance,…

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