2016 NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s been a slow start thus far this year, with our official plays going 1-1, while both of our leans lost. That puts us at 1-3 on the year, but it is early days still. Here are this week’s picks: Big Plays (0-2 YTD) Chicago +7/+7.5 at Dallas [M-P Line: CHI +3.1] Other Plays (1-1…

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CFB Week 3 Grades

Here are our “grades” for the third week of the college season. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of…

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NFL Week 2 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 2. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance,…

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NFL Week 1 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 1. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. So Pittsburgh was fundamentally 10.7 points better than an…

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2016 NFL Week 2 Picks

The season got off to a sluggish start, with both our official plays losing, though our one lean was victorious. As I mentioned last week, we’re weighting the market number more heavily early in the season, so the threshold for something to quality as a pick is a little higher than in the past. I…

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2016 NFL Week 1 Picks

Welcome back! It’s been a long offseason, but during that time Cade and I have made some improvements on our model(s). We’ve also examined its historical performance more closely and critically, and found that our predictive value, relative to the market, increases as the season progresses. To folks who know the basics of our methodology, this shouldn’t…

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Super Bowl Prediction

Unfortunately, we think the market got it right this time. We make the Panthers a 5.6-point favorite (with a 67.8% chance of winning), and our total for the game is 44.3. No value at the current consensus line of 5.5/44.   For the season, our picks ed up: Big Plays: 24-14-1 Other Plays: 17-19 Leans: 9-10-2 So…

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