Correction on NFL Records

It was brought to my attention that a loss from Week 9 was not included in our W/L record for Big Plays. I went through week-by-week to make sure everything was correct in our records and found that, indeed, a Week 9 loss was omitted from our record in the subsequent weeks. After adding that loss,…

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NFL Wild Card Picks

Week 17 Recap: Despite a brutal loss with St. Louis (+12.5) fumbling away a 6-point halftime lead, we still managed to end the regular season on a positive note, going 4-2. Our only other loss was Miami (-6) losing outright to the Jets. Our winners were Kansas City (-3), Philadelphia (+2.5/+3), and Denver (-14) in Big Plays…

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NFL Week 17 Picks

Week 16 Recap Merry Christmas! Our late-season slide continued last week, with our official plays going 3-4. Our Big Plays took the hit, going 1-3 and dropping our YTD record to below 50% for the first time this season (49.3%). Tennessee (+3.5) blew a 10-point first half lead and lost by 8; Chicago (+9) almost won outright, giving us…

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College Football Bowl Game Picks

Play criteria are the same as they have been all year. We do not consider situational factors, motivation, lame duck coaches, etc. Lines are based purely off our power ratings, adjusted for QB injuries and pace of play. Lines are Vegas Insider consensus as of 11:00am PST on Thursday, December 18.   Big Plays (16-11-1…

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NFL Week 16 Picks

Week 15 Recap We continued our late-season swoon with another subpar performance. Our Big Plays went 0-3, their worst mark of the season so far. They drop to a barely-profitable 52.5% on the season. Baltimore (-14) came out very flat, and struggled just to beat the Jaguars outright, never threatening the cover. Miami (+7.5) had a field…

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CFB Playoff Bracket, Final

The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, drawing on good analytics while acknowledging political reality. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) Every team starts the…

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CFB Playoff Bracket for Dec 6

The Massey-Peabody bracket reconciles politics and analytics, drawing on good analytics while acknowledging political reality. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) Every team starts the…

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