College Football Week 3 Picks

Our updated CFB ratings can be found (and downloaded!) here. Coming off of a BRUTAL week, where we won just one game.  I know it must not inspire much confidence, but all I can do is laugh about it and move on.  I remain confident in the process.  Weeks such as this are (probabilistically) almost certain…

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NFL Week 1 Picks

After an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1.  Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent.  The other…

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Week 2 NCAA Football Ratings & Picks

Well, last week didn’t go as well as we’d have liked.  3-3 on our “Big Plays” and 3-4 on “Other Plays”. Our updated ratings after week 1 can be found here.  Interesting to see that despite Clemson beating Georgia in last weekend’s marquee matchup, we still rate Georgia significantly higher.  Statistically, Georgia had the better…

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College Football Week 1 Picks

Without further ado, here is the inaugural version of our weekly college football picks against the spread.  Lines taken from Bookmaker as of 10:30am PDT on Wednesday.  Some big differences between our numbers and the market.  We think a lot of games won’t be quite as lopsided as the market.  This is fairly common at…

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2012 Strength of Schedule

A quick look at teams’ strength-of-schedule this season. Below we’ve simply averaged the end-of-season MP rating for each team’s 16 opponents. Playoff teams are highlighted in red. A few observations: Most playoff teams come from the easier half of the distribution. While tempting to believe that is because of the easier schedule, these scheduling differences can’t explain…

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