NFL Week 1 Picks

After an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1.  Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent.  The other…

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College Football Week 1 Picks

Without further ado, here is the inaugural version of our weekly college football picks against the spread.  Lines taken from Bookmaker as of 10:30am PDT on Wednesday.  Some big differences between our numbers and the market.  We think a lot of games won’t be quite as lopsided as the market.  This is fairly common at…

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2012 Strength of Schedule

A quick look at teams’ strength-of-schedule this season. Below we’ve simply averaged the end-of-season MP rating for each team’s 16 opponents. Playoff teams are highlighted in red. A few observations: Most playoff teams come from the easier half of the distribution. While tempting to believe that is because of the easier schedule, these scheduling differences can’t explain…

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Wildcard Picks

Last week we were 2-0, including one “Big Play”, making our overall YTD 50-43-2 (53.8%). We were also 2-0 in the WSJ, pushing the YTD to 33-26-1 (55.9%). No action this week! We are in close agreement with Vegas on these 4 games. Our biggest edge, though still not what we’d consider a pick at…

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