College Football Week 7 Picks

Finally, a winning weekend in college football!  We went 8-2 overall, including 4-1 on “Big Plays”, 1-1 on “Other Plays”, and 3-0 on “MP Leans”.  Our big plays are now well in the positive.  If only we could somehow just forget about the other plays…  We also did very well with the line moves, beating…

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NFL Week 6 Picks

Our picks last week went 2-4 overall.  Both of our “Big Plays” lost, while we split the “Other Plays”.  Despite the outcomes being unprofitable, I think we “won” with the process. The short-run driver of results in this business is luck; in the long-run, skill shines through.  In the short-run, a better predictor of future…

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NFL Week 5 Picks

Last week, we went 3-3 on our plays (all “Other Plays”).  This has been a year with two big outliers.  The Jaguars offense has been historically inept.  The numbers are staggeringly awful.  Jacksonville’s play success rate is only 24.8% (league average is 44.6%) and they average only 3.3 adj yards per play.   The Jaguars don’t just…

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College Football Week 6 Picks

Coming off a .500 weekend last week in college football.  2-0 on “Big Plays”, 2-3 on “Other Plays”, 1-2 on “MP Leans”.  This week, for the first time, I’m doing a write-up of the big plays.  Lines are widely available as of 11:30am EDT on Wednesday.  As always, they are based on the M-P ratings…

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NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week saw our NFL plays go 2-1-1, with Baltimore and Indy both covering comfortable (and winning outright), but San Diego could not seal the deal in the last minute and let Tennessee get the backdoor push.  It’s very early in the year to say this, but our ratings certainly show that there is a…

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NFL Week 3 Picks

Nice to be back in the win column!  Excellent week last week, going 1-0 on Big Plays and 6-1 on Other Plays.  There’s obviously some positive variance in there, but I’ll take it; we had more than our share of negative variance the week before.  Once again on primarily underdogs this week.  In my opinion,…

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College Football Week 4 Picks

The complete ratings can be found here.  Another subpar weekend on the college front.  0-2 on Big Plays, 2-2 on Other Plays, but leans did go 2-0.  Despite the unprofitable record thus far, our plays have been getting good closing line value.  The average play we’ve released has closed 0.7 points toward our side (meaning…

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NFL Week 2 Picks

Every year, there are a few unexpected performances in the first week of the season, and this year was no different.  Who expected the Eagles to walk all over the Redskins?  Or the lowly Raiders to nearly beat the Colts?  While there is plenty of signal in one week of data, its value is still…

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College Football Week 3 Picks

Our updated CFB ratings can be found (and downloaded!) here. Coming off of a BRUTAL week, where we won just one game.  I know it must not inspire much confidence, but all I can do is laugh about it and move on.  I remain confident in the process.  Weeks such as this are (probabilistically) almost certain…

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