For the first time since we started this work we’re going to use priors in our rankings. We were driven to this because we wanted to make week-1 predictions, but we’re also hopeful it will boost our performance early in the season. We are doing this in the most simple, light-handed, and in some ways obviously…
Welcome to the 2012 NFL season. The Giants & Cowboys kick things off in just a few hours. We’re back and striving to give you the cleanest look possible at the true ability of NFL teams. As always, we do that by considering context, factoring out chance, and most important, weighing statistics for what they…
The hallmark of a good system is that it does better when more confident. I.e., the more sure you are, the more often you should be right. Far too few people track this. Confidence here is the difference between the M-P implied pointspread and the actual betting line (this difference is also known as the…
Our weekly power rankings show how we predict teams will perform the rest of the year. [button url="http://massey-peabody.com/nfl-2013-current-power-rankings/" target="_self" size="small" style="coolblue" ]Current Rankings[/button]
Each week we compare the Massey-Peabody power rankings to betting lines to make picks against the spread. In 2011 we hit 55.9% of all picks, and 64.7% of our “Big Plays”. [button url="http://massey-peabody.com/massey-peabody-blog/" target="_self" size="small" style="coolblue" ]This Week’s Picks[/button]
The Wall Street Journal has published our Power Rankings weekly since 2010. In 2012 they will also carry our game predictions. [button url="http://massey-peabody.com/massey-peabody-in-the-wall-street-journal/" target="_self" size="small" style="coolblue" ]Read More[/button]
So, we’re going to scratch the PIT pick, since Roethlisberger is out with an injury. Charlie Batch in for Roethlisberger.
2-2 last week. The usual protocol this week re injuries, weather, lines, etc. And as always, “Big Plays” are games with a 4+ point edge, and “Other Plays” are games with 2-4 point edges. Getting to be a tough time of year for a system that doesn’t account for injuries — be sure to see…
3-1-1 last week, 1-0 on big picks. For detail on yearly performance, see this summary graph and/or this spreadsheet. As usual, lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago. Big Plays [18-8 YTD]: Det (+6.5) vs. GB (MP= +1.8) Other Plays [26-20-2 YTD]: Mia (+7) at Dal (MP= +3.6) SF (+3) at Bal (MP=…