Week-8 Picks

Another off week and now we’re officially below .500 for the first time in our 2.5-year existence! Small samples, baby. Chagrined but not worried. We believe we’ve been on the right side of the market and it’s only a matter of time until a bit of the luck goes our way. 0-4-1 last week, including…

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Week 7 Picks

We had a second consecutive losing week last weekend, going 1-1-1 on Big Plays, and 1-3 on Other Plays.  Our overall record for the season now stands at 19-16-2 (54.3%).  Our picks published in the WSJ, which may differ from the website picks due to line moves, went 1-4-1 and are 8-8-1 on the season.…

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Week-6 Picks

We had our first losing weekend last week, going 2-3. Overall for the season we are 17-12-1 (58.6%). In the Wall Street Journal we actually went 3-1, pushing our yearly record to 7-4 (63.6%). As detailed in a blog entry last week, we’re tracking those picks separately since they are based on late-week lines. For…

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Week-5 Picks

Last week was the best of the season, hitting 5 of 7 picks, including all 3 of our Big Plays. For the season we are up to 15-9-1 (62.5%). And, nice bit, we’ve been on the positive side of the ledger every week. Smaller slate this week so we’re being a little aggressive with our…

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Week-4 Picks

Last week we were 3-2-1, pushing the NYJ-Miami game when it went to OT. The crazy Baltimore-New England game got us into winning territory at the end of the weekend. We’re now 10-7-1 (58.8%) for the year. Large slate this week, with picks on 7 of the 15 games (Pittsburgh and Indy have byes). “Big…

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Week-3 Picks

Last week we were 4-3, splitting our Big Plays and hitting 3 of the 5 Other Plays. With two weeks of games in now we have an initial look at opponent strength, so the model’s at least covering all the bases. Remember we do not consider injuries unless we explicitly say so (and that’s quite rare).…

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Week-1 Picks

This week is a sort of beta trial for us, as we’ve never before made picks based on anything other than same-year performance. However, back-testing says we can do this (about as well as our normal picks) so we’ll give it a whirl. Our usual caveats apply – we do not consider injuries or, in…

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