2017 NFL Week 3 Picks

Big Plays (2-2-1 YTD) New York Jets +6 vs. Miami [MP Line: NYJ +1.6] Arizona +3 vs. Dallas [MP Line: ARI -4.5] Other Plays (2-1 YTD) Chicago +7/+7.5 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CHI +5.5] Cincinnati +8.5/+9 at Green Bay [MP Line: CIN +6.2] Washington +3 vs. Oakland [MP Line: WAS +0.0] Break-Even or Better (unofficial…

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NFL Week 2 Game Grades

This week’s game grades are a little spicier. The margin of victory for our top three this week — Denver, New England, and Tennessee — closely mirrored their expected score differential. But there were a lot of games this past weekend where the final score and the fundamentals told a different story. Below are the expected vs.…

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CFB Week 3 Game Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…

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2017 NFL Week 2 Picks

Here are our Week 2 picks against the spread. For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be available at a minimum of two of the four books. If there’s no consensus, or a heavily juiced line, we’ll post the pick in the…

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NFL Week 1 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

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CFB Week 2 Game Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…

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2017 NFL Week 1 Picks

A summary of our historical performance can be found here. If you want to verify it yourself, you can go through all our previous blog entries (which I have used to compile this). For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be…

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