College Football Week 6 Picks

Coming off a .500 weekend last week in college football.  2-0 on “Big Plays”, 2-3 on “Other Plays”, 1-2 on “MP Leans”.  This week, for the first time, I’m doing a write-up of the big plays.  Lines are widely available as of 11:30am EDT on Wednesday.  As always, they are based on the M-P ratings…

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NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week saw our NFL plays go 2-1-1, with Baltimore and Indy both covering comfortable (and winning outright), but San Diego could not seal the deal in the last minute and let Tennessee get the backdoor push.  It’s very early in the year to say this, but our ratings certainly show that there is a…

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NFL Week 3 Picks

Nice to be back in the win column!  Excellent week last week, going 1-0 on Big Plays and 6-1 on Other Plays.  There’s obviously some positive variance in there, but I’ll take it; we had more than our share of negative variance the week before.  Once again on primarily underdogs this week.  In my opinion,…

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College Football Week 4 Picks

The complete ratings can be found here.  Another subpar weekend on the college front.  0-2 on Big Plays, 2-2 on Other Plays, but leans did go 2-0.  Despite the unprofitable record thus far, our plays have been getting good closing line value.  The average play we’ve released has closed 0.7 points toward our side (meaning…

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NFL Week 2 Picks

Every year, there are a few unexpected performances in the first week of the season, and this year was no different.  Who expected the Eagles to walk all over the Redskins?  Or the lowly Raiders to nearly beat the Colts?  While there is plenty of signal in one week of data, its value is still…

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College Football Week 3 Picks

Our updated CFB ratings can be found (and downloaded!) here. Coming off of a BRUTAL week, where we won just one game.  I know it must not inspire much confidence, but all I can do is laugh about it and move on.  I remain confident in the process.  Weeks such as this are (probabilistically) almost certain…

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NFL Week 1 Picks

After an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1.  Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent.  The other…

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College Football Week 1 Picks

Without further ado, here is the inaugural version of our weekly college football picks against the spread.  Lines taken from Bookmaker as of 10:30am PDT on Wednesday.  Some big differences between our numbers and the market.  We think a lot of games won’t be quite as lopsided as the market.  This is fairly common at…

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